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Analysis of the Polish foreign trade in the light of recent theoretical concepts

Doktor Tomasz Brodzicki

t.brodzicki@instytut-rozwoju.org

Scholar Publishing House has just published the book commissioned by the Institute of Development entitled "Analysis of the Polish foreign trade in the light of recent theoretical concepts "edited by Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel and Stanislaw Umiński resulting from the research project led by Professor Gawlikowska-Hueckel in IR within the research grant of the National Science Centre no DEC-2012/05/B/HS4/04209 .

The book in English has no ISBN 978-83-7383-816-1


We invite you to read the free ebook in English (on the English side of the IR) or Polish (Polish web site).

The book will also be available in the system ResearchGate, and a printed version will be distributed to scientific libraries in Poland and selected researchers. In the case of interest in the printed version please nominations - it will be implemented as much as possible.

Authors:

 

  • Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel - UG WE KEIE, IR
  • Stanisław Umiński - UG WE OBIE, IR
  • Tomasz Brodzicki - UG WE KEIE, IR
  • Katarzyna Śledziewska - WNE UW
  • Dorota Ciołek - UG WZ KE, IR
  • Tomasz Jurkiewicz - UG WZ KS
  • Sylwia Majkowska-Szulc - UG WPiA
  • Witold Orłowski - PwC, WZ PW 

 


Book contents 

Part One

Poland’s foreign trade in the face
of globalisation and changes on global markets
Chapter 1. Global determinants of Poland’s trade during
and after the crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Witold M. Orłowski
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.1. The Global Financial Crisis: causes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.2. The Global Financial Crisis: how it progressed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.3. Global debt issues and deleveraging prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.4. Threat of protectionism during the Global Financial Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Trade protectionism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Protectionism in capital flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Protectionism relating to currency use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel
1.5. Protectionism tools in international trade after 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Chapter 2. Poland’s trade following the country’s EU accession,
with particular emphasis on high-technology goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel, Katarzyna Śledziewska
Introduction: The status of the Polish economy on the eve
of the transformation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.1. Trends in Poland’s foreign trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.2. Poland’s trade in high-technology goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.2.1. A review of research on export competitiveness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.2.2. The trade in high-technology products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
2.2.3. Comparative advantage in high-technology trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Part Two
International exchange in the light of theory and empirical research
Chapter 3. A review of trade theories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel
3.1. Theoretical framework of international trade theories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
3.1.1. Traditional trade theories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
3.1.2. Neoclassical trade theories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
3.1.3. A new approach to international trade (post 1970) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Tomasz Brodzicki
3.2. Intra-industry trade theories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Stanisław Umiński
3.3. Applications of the gravity model in the study of international trade . . . . . 93
3.3.1. The origin of gravity in economic analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.3.2. “Facts without theory” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
3.3.3. Multilateral trade resistance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
3.3.4. Non-typical applications of the gravity models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
3.3.5. Selection of variables for the gravity models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
3.3.6. Estimation methods in the gravity models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Tomasz Brodzicki
3.4. New new trade theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
3.5. The innovation and internationalisation nexus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
Chapter 4. Poland’s intra-industry trade, its decomposition
and determinants. A model approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Tomasz Brodzicki
4.1. Review of empirical literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.2. Methodology of IIT analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel, Katarzyna Śledziewska
4.3. Intra-industry trade in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
4.3.1. Intra-industry trade by the level of technological advancement . . . . 117
4.3.2. IIT index for HT trade for Poland in exports to groups of countries
with which Poland has different types of trade agreements . . . . . . . . 123
4.3.3. IIT index for Poland’s exports to selected countries and groups
of countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Tomasz Brodzicki
4.4. An econometric analysis of the determinants of Poland’s intra-industry
trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Tomasz Brodzicki, Dorota Ciołek, Katarzyna Śledziewska
4.5. Determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade. . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
4.6. Determinants of the intensity of Poland’s trade. The gravity approach . . . . 139
4.6.1. Methodology of the gravity model estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
4.6.2. The empirical model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
4.6.3. Results of estimations and discussion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Chapter 5. Analysis of factors underpinning export activity
of firms in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Tomasz Jurkiewicz, Stanisław Umiński
5.1. An analysis of the survey results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
5.1.1. Barriers to export activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
5.1.2. Observable competitive pressure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
5.1.3. Consequences of Poland’s EU membership. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
5.1.4. Perception of the consequences of the 2008+ crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
Dorota Ciołek, Tomasz Brodzicki
5.2. Determinants of export activity of firms in Poland – the logit model . . . . . 165
5.2.1. Definitions and statistics of variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
5.2.2. Characteristics of logit modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
5.2.3. The role of productivity in export activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
5.2.4. Internationalisation and export activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
5.2.5. The impact of external environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
5.2.6. The role of innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
Part Three
Economic policy and the challenges of globalisation.
Possible use of trade support measures
Chapter 6. The economic policy and the challenges of globalisation.
Opportunities for the use of trade promotion measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Sylwia Majkowska-Szulc
6.1. Legal conditioning of the development of export by Polish enterprises
within the framework of EU economic policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
6.1.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
6.1.2. The concept of trade in goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
6.1.3. The specifics of functioning of transnational enterprises . . . . . . . . . . 195
6.1.4. The European Union’s Common Commercial Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
6.1.5. Corporate Social Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
6.1.6. The internationalisation of small and medium-sized enterprises . . . 200
6.1.7. Tax exemptions relating to trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
6.1.8. TBR – the Trade Barriers Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel
6.2. Industrial policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
6.2.1. A review of the literature on industrial policy concepts
and instruments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
6.2.2. The evolution of industrial policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
Stanisław Umiński
6.3. The regionalisation of commercial policy and
of export-related analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
6.3.1. The justification for and conditioning of regional-level analysis
of international trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
6.3.2. A synthetic review of research on foreign trade for regions
in Poland and in the world. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
6.3.3. Internationalisation as a new dimension to differences
in regional development – an empirical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
6.3.4. Subsidiarity as a justification for the pursuit of an export-oriented
policy at regional level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
6.3.5. Internationalisation as a priority of regional development policy . . . 227
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Krystyna Gawlikowska-Hueckel
Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
Method of calculating the Revealed Comparative Advantages Index . . . . . . . . . 238
Division of EU Member States into groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Division of EU’s trade partners into groups based on trade agreements. . . . . . . 240
Databases used in the study of trade product structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
On the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
Index of names . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262

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