Publication » Opinion

Wyślij Send | Wyślij Print

What really determines Polish exports? Semi-mixed effects gravity model for Poland

Doktor hab. Tomasz Brodzicki

t.brodzicki@instytut-rozwoju.org

What really determines Polish exports? Semi-mixed effects gravity model for Poland

Tomasz Brodzicki, Dorota Ciołek & Katarzyna Śledziewska 

  • December 2017
  • Argumenta Oeconomica 39(2):5-20
  • DOI
  • 10.15611/aoe.2017.2.01
  • The goal of this article is to investigate the determinants of the intensity of Polish exports with the use of the trade gravity approach in a panel data set covering the period 1999-2013. In an attempt to obtain unbiased results we utilize the semi-mixed effect method using PPML estimator as suggested by the recent empirical literature. In the basic version of the trade gravity model, we take into account the standard factors suggested by the literature of the subject. In its extended version, we control for additional factors including relative endowments of factors of production, a technological gap as measured by TFP and relative patenting performance, quality of institutions or impact of regional and bilateral trade agreements or exchange rate volatility. In most of the cases, the coefficients for the traditional gravity determinants are economically sensible and their impact on the dependent variable is statistically significant. The gravity approach proves to be a robust tool for identifying the determinants of trade intensity and thus for predicting future trade flows.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321759282_What_really_determines_Polish_exports_Semi-mixed_effects_gravity_model_for_Poland

    Recent publications by this author:


    Dodatkowe

    • Tagi:

      trade gravity, Poland, panel data, semi-mixed effects, PPML

    • JEL:C23, F10, F14, F15
    Sort by